Meet on Afghanistan

The Arunachal Times

16 February 2010

Features

Meet on Afghanistan

Wrong timing, cosmetic pledges

By Monish Tourangbam

Another cosmetic, detail-starved international conference on Afghanistan came to an end. The escapist mindset of the NATO countries almost amounts to sending a congratulatory note to the resurgent Taliban. With an exit plan being consented to by the war-fatigued nations, the insurgents knows that time is on their side and that they just have to hang on and wait for the foreign forces to leave.

The whole debate on “Good Taliban Vs Bad Taliban” and the plan to buy off elements of the Taliban willing to desert comes at a wrong juncture when the insurgents seem convinced that they are winning the war. It would have seemed more plausible in case the coalition forces were winning convincingly on the battlefield and affected a favorable opinion from the local populace towards their presence. This is certainly not the case.

The communiqué of the conference focusing on securing, stabilizing and developing Afghanistan, largely hinged on the vague idea of striking deals with the so-called “Good Taliban”. The principle element of success of the conference lies on a false assumption that many of the Taliban foot-soldiers join the insurgency out of economic compulsions. This is a simplified view, deliberately put forth to justify the strategy of reintegration.

The problem is much more complex, rooted in morphed versions of history and religion. A short-sighted vision to hastily pull down the curtains on the counter-insurgency operations would seriously derail the country into another era of xenophobia and fanatical religious conservatism. The facts on the ground indicate that the insurgency has gained the upper hand in recent times, and the Karzai government which came back to power in a fraud-tainted election is in a precarious condition. It stands accused of high-level corruption, of fostering ties with regional warlords to cling to power.

President Karzai finds himself in a pitiful position, not yet able to conjure up a cabinet acceptable by the national parliament. The Taliban strikes different parts of the country, including the capital, with impunity. Add to this the disdain for the foreign forces which seem to be spreading among the local populace. The insurgents are in high-spirits for forcing the coalition army to war-fatigue and the buying-off strategy is not meant for an opposition who is confident of winning the war. For such a strategy to work, the Taliban have to be subdued in the battlefield to an extent where deserting might seem an attractive option for large sections of the cadres, not when the insurgents feel that the foreign forces are on the run and compelled to exit. Indeed, according to US intelligence estimates, the Taliban now has shadow governments in 33 of the 34 provinces, raising questions over the entire strategy of motivating the Taliban to reintegrate.

Keeping in mind its domestic audiences, the Obama administration has given a timeframe to start the withdrawal process but at the same time, decided for a troop surge and increased commitment from other NATO countries. But, nations are clearly strained. For instance, two days before the London summit, Germany, the third largest contributor to the NATO mission in Afghanistan, announced an increase of only 500 extra soldiers plus a so-called "flexible reserve" force of 350 deployable at short notice — far fewer than Washington had hoped for. Moreover, the emphasis is on training Afghan forces rather than engaging in frontline fighting.

If the strategy revolves around providing job opportunities to the insurgents who decide to come under the government’s wing, then the process seems wistful as of now. High Unemployment levels remain one of the basic issues in Afghanistan. The government, with assistance from other countries cannot create enough job opportunities for normal hard-working citizens. So, are the jobs waiting for these “good insurgents” to convert and re-enter civil society?

There is no clarity yet as to how the government or for that matter the international community would manufacture opportunities for these young men who seem just “fine” in their present “avatars”, giving foreign forces hard times in the mountainous country. Now, if the plan is to pay free-cheques to the Taliban deserters, then what is the back-up plan in case they decide to go back and join their brothers after exercising their rights to some easy legitimate money? The reintegration process, without due monitoring, also runs the risk of jeopardizing the whole purpose. The plan may also become an easy springboard for Taliban cadres to infiltrate the Afghan national army.

Improving the Afghan forces to take over the security of the country in a phased manner was one of the highlights. But, the presence and influence of the government is highly limited with the Taliban ruling the roosts in major parts and even the local populace seems to highly discredit the government machineries. Add to this the menace of the drug money and addiction, and we have a post-card chaos and utter failure of governance. Hardly any substantial effort has been spelled out towards mitigating these issues. The conference concentrated on quick-fixing the fractures with some half-cooked ideas, to enable the western countries to have a face-saving exit. In late 2009 it was estimated that 10,000 out of the 94,000 Afghan soldiers, who had been trained so far had simply disappeared. Besides, 15 per cent of the Afghan army, and up to 60 per cent of the Afghan police in Helmand province, are estimated to be drug addicts.

As the return of Taliban looks more plausible with plans to strike deals with the “Good Taliban”, Afghan women are on their toes, fearing that their hard-won freedom is in jeopardy. Even as US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton acknowledged the concerns, she could at best offer a diplomatic soothing balm that the Taliban have to abide by the conditions of the peace deal. As fear and concern mounts of the impending danger, the Afghan government failed to include even one woman in its delegation to London. When Orsana Ashraf, founder, Humanitarian Assistance for the Women and Children of Afghanistan, lobbied officials to ask for women's views to be properly represented, she got a curt response: “this isn't ladies' business; this is about security."

India, a major victim of terrorism that has categorically refused to swallow the idea of “Good Taliban Vs Bad Taliban” was clearly sidelined in the international conference. Yet again, the world community, spearheaded by the US and the UK, bought Islamabad’s bargain that it could help strike a deal with the Taliban. Pakistan which helped bring about the Taliban in the 90s, now sells itself as the panacea of the disease, and the Obama administration seems content on consenting as long as it delivers some myopic foreign policy objectives. The prospects of any positive development look grim in the event of a hasty withdrawal and an eventual Taliban takeover duly sustained by the Pakistani military. In overlooking India’s soft diplomacy and its contribution to the Afghan reconstruction, the international community is setting a bad precedent in world politics, where force is often the most preferred option. ---INFA

Unfinished Mortals

We ARE……. Nothing but Unfinished mortals…. Sketchy, Hazy, Indistinct, Unkempt Portraits------- Yet we are unruly, fiercely independent and dangerous beauties, no longer under the Holy Scepter of the Painter. Thoughts shaped and shaping thoughts, Ideas that build and Ideas that kill, no longer owned and created but Colors and Hues, some meticulously added----some splashed across….out of the Painter’s Hand, the scepter snatched by the Painting. Who was the subject of the portrait, the painted? ------ On whose image did the mortals get this Life? -----Rebellion of the created…. The Painting persists….the Painter in oblivion, the created creates in His own Image------ colors washed-----Re-splashed. THE PAINTING persists---unfinished mortals multiplying Own Image-------

ARUNACHAL TIMES

FEB 1, 2010

FEATURES

US Defence Secy’s Visit

Confidence-building mission

By Monish Tourangbam

US Defence Secretary Robert Gates’ recently-concluded official trip to India and neighbouring Pakistan can be summed up as a confidence-building exercise, notwithstanding the two destinations are in different stages of growth and share a different relationship with the United States. While India is being projected as one of the fastest growing economies and an emerging major player in the international arena, Pakistan is largely seen as a country on the brink of implosion, under attack from the same sinister groups that it helped nurture. India is recognized as a responsible nuclear-armed country showing utmost restraint even in the wake of a catastrophe like 26/11.

On the other hand, the picture of Pakistan is complex. It seems to be bearing the brunt of major terrorist attacks on its soil but at the same time has been accused of being reluctant to fight sections of the insurgents, particularly those with the intention to harm Indian interests. Moreover, concerns have been expressed that the conditions in Pakistan are not conducive for the safety and security of its nuclear weapons, with fear mounting of the weapons falling into terrorists’ hands. Thus, the nature and the purpose of the visits to India and Pakistan were different but on the whole could be seen as confidence-building measures on both sides of the border.

The US is involved with India and Pakistan at different planes and the nature of the relationship is dictated by the importance that both the countries hold in America’s engagement in the region. India and the US experienced a thaw in their relations during the closing years of the Clinton Administration, significantly taken forward during the Bush Administration. Otherwise discredited for his misadventures, George W. Bush helped open up an international platform for India in the form of the Indo-US nuclear deal and the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group (NSG)-waiver.

These diplomatic milestones entailed increased defence trade, military exercises and the importance accorded to India in the Asian and international scheme of things. In a way, the Bush Administration was successful in highlighting and concentrating on the points of convergence and tone down irritants. In recent times, President Obama’s succession brought some concerns in the Indian diplomatic circles, with highlight accorded to non-proliferation goals. Moreover, in view of the economic ties between the US and China, the Obama Administration went to the extent of hinting at a prospective Chinese role in the Indian subcontinent. Any overt tilt towards Beijing, particularly in matters concerning the South Asian region is sure to ignite serious concerns in New Delhi.

But, efforts made to dispel the misunderstandings have yielded results. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s India visit last July was a significant step in this effort. The visit, coming after much negative speculations, managed to infuse a lot of positive energy. Besides signing official agreements, Secretary Clinton engaged in public diplomacy meeting people from across wide areas of interests. Then, the icing on the cake came in the form of the State welcome given to Prime Minister Manmohan Singh at the White House and the extra mile that President Obama walked to dispel the fears and misconceptions on the Indian side.

In the context of these developments, the Gates’ visit assumes importance as a way to further cement the relationship and keep the channels open. This is the first high-level visit from the US administration in the New Year and the also the first after the Singh’s state visit to Washington. It is also being seen as a spade-work before the upcoming visit by President Obama. The US Defence Secretary chose to recognize India’s controlled resilience after the Mumbai attacks but amplified the sinister network that was ought to disturb peace in the region. He commented that New Delhi’s patience could be limited in the event of a similar attack in future, thus calling attention to the need for jointly tackling the terror nexus operating from Afghanistan-Pakistan.

The visit also culminated in the American proposal to New Delhi to sign the Communications Inter-Operability and Security Memorandum of Understanding (CISMOA) and the Logistic Supplies Agreement (LSA). These agreements, if realized according to the US administration would entail better access to American high technology. The visiting Secretary assured that the advantages that India would get from these agreements would be spelt out in detail. In short, the LSA leads to provision of air and sea ports to each other on reciprocal basis and the CISMOA will provide for sharing of information by enabling an easier interface between the militaries of the two countries.

India is reluctant to sign them and as emphasized by the Defence Minister AK Antony, New Delhi would consider entering into the pacts only after weighing the pros and cons. The Defence Minister also expressed India’s concerns regarding the denial of export licenses to various defence-related purchases. Nevertheless, the defence ties between the two countries are burgeoning. Reflecting this, there are talks of supply of several military equipment including C-17 transport aircraft, artillery guns and US companies are bidding for Indian defence contracts for $9 billion 126 multi-role combat aircraft.

Pakistan has time and again served as the frontline state for the United States engagement in the region as a result of its geostrategic location, either against Communism or Terrorism. This was made easier by Pakistan’s willingness to compromise for the sake of building its military infrastructure against arch-enemy India. Pakistan is an indispensable part of the American campaign in Afghanistan, much depending on how the Pakistani army fights the “terror womb” in its western border.

A large part of the Pakistan visit was devoted to ensuring its public and the establishment that the US was committed to bringing peace and security to the region, that it would not abandon the region as it did in the past when the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in 1989. Concerns have risen since President Obama’s decision to begin withdrawing troops from Afghanistan by July 2011. There has been visible and rising anti-Americanism in Pakistan amid the increasing drone attacks in militant hideouts of Pakistan. There have been an unprecedented number of attacks following a deadly militant attack on a CIA base in Afghanistan, December last year.

During his stay in Pakistan, Gates engaged in vigorous public diplomacy including television interviews and a newspaper op-ed in an effort to drive the point that the Americans were engaged in fighting a common enemy. He emphasized that the Indian involvement in Afghanistan was entirely focused on developmental efforts and should not be a cause of worry for Pakistan. He contended that the Pakistan army should focus on fighting the imminent danger on its western border dismissing the perceptions of threat from the Indian border.

The Pakistan army has often been wanting in its commitment to fight groups that do not pose a direct threat to its State, and this is exactly where the Obama Administration needs to convince the Pakistani establishment. Such double standards adopted by the Pakistani army and intelligence has resulted in sinister terror campaigns against India, thus derailing bilateral relations and nipping in the bud any chances of stability. --- INFA

Years Before and After

These are probably the first lines of a new year that almost feels like the year before, which seemed like the one before it. Something must have changed for sure, from within and from without. I am sure of this but been never sure of what really changed. Do I love to do the things that gave me joy in the year before? But, do I even know what made me happy the year before and the one before that? Monotony is my biggest foe. There are lots to be done but actually, I do not do anything. I just work. I lose count of so many things these days or do I care to even look back. I often think of adventure, but hit a dead road woke up by the first rays of sunlight forcing through my windows. I love the mist in the morning, for they keep me dreaming, I often sleep with my mouth wide opened in the public transport. Oh? I love dreaming, they raise me like the clouds that move so majestically taking whatever form you can imagine. But, then I am often awakened by a crowd of prying eyes trying to look into my open mouth. Damn, I am embarrassed. But, then I look out of the window to a sultry winter morning and dream of the next day’s dream.

The Limitless Joy of an Unbounded Religion

The Limitless Joy of an Unbounded Religion

As I put down my pen and wake up from the flight of imagined wings, I feel an immense pride to fancy myself as the child of a religion that knows no bounds, that defines nothing. As I look up at the pantheon of this religion, I wonder if anyone who lived and died putting the bricks of its divine pillars ever tried to define it. I wish if I knew if they did but maybe, they surely knew that definition often ends up dividing and poetry has never divided. Poetry has no peculiarity, no bounded identities but an endless horizon where every mortal’s dream can be fulfilled without ever drowning another dream. It is a pantheon of the greatest poem ever – the falling, clinging, bursting, struggling earth but yet a thriving and beautiful earth. It is the abode of the greatest poet. And He has a place for all who have the integrity, devotion and the purity of worshipping poetry; for nothing compares the joy and divinity of creation for in creation, we redeem our being.